Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
